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Demographics: PNP Advantage
Using the 2011 National Census data the constituency was broken down into 3 large areas and 3 small
51.9
60.6
44.2
51.7
59.5
36.3
51.4
60.7
53.7
47.9 49
50.7
48.1
38
55
48.3
40.5
63.7
48.6
32.2
38.2
52.1 50.6
49.3
1959 1962 1967 1972 1976 1980 1989 1993 1997 2002 2007 2011
Chart 6: Voting Trends 1959 to 2011 in St. Andrew East Rural
PNP
JLP
ones as shown in Chart 7. Meticulous proportionate sampling allowed every area and district within
each of the 3 large areas to be accurately represented. Elections in this constituency are won by
dominating the big 3: Bull Bay/Seven Miles, Harbour View and Gordon Town. Kintyre/Hope Flats, Dallas
and its surroundings, and Mavis Bank do not make up even one-fifth of the constituency. In Bull Bay the
PNP controls the main frame but the JLP holds the isolated and fringe areas such as Cane River,
Friendship and Ten Miles. The JLP also control Seven Miles. The result from the study is that the JLP
edges the PNP in the largest area (25:21). Nonetheless, the PNP dominates the JLP 3 to 1 in Harbour
View and 2 to 1 in Gordon Town, and consequently dominates the big 3 overall by 51:36. The PNP then
wins the struggle for the minors by the creation of ‘nests’ in areas such as Hope Flats to create a ratio of
18:15. These patches (or nests as the residents describe them) suggest that the PNP have more mature
roots in this constituency – forcing the researchers to conclude that it is indeed a seat for the PNP to
lose; and given there are no social upheavals, they approach the upcoming election with confidence that
they can continue the pattern of consolidation after Crawford’s dramatic win in 2011.