18 / 18
Note that this study carries 2 types of votes – vote and might vote. When a respondent expresses with
at he/she is going to vote only 2 responses can result: a vote (PNP or JLP) or ‘Cannot say’.
The latter is possible because the integrated instrument used in the study does not ask a direct question
PARISH
CON-
CODE
N
VOTE RAW
SCORE
MIGHT RAW
SCORE
NOT/
C’SAY/
GIFT
RESULT%
% DIF
PREDICT
COMMENT
In closing:
certainty th
about the voting intention of the respondent. When a respondent expresses uncertainly about voting
he or she is asked ‘Why’. This allows the researcher to place the uncertain respondent under ‘Might vote
(JLP or PNP)’ or ‘Not vote’ or ‘Cannot say’.
Might votes can shift. Consequently they are only worth a
half of a vote.
PNP
JLP
PNP
JLP
PNP
JLP
NOT/
C'SAY/
GIFT
ST. ELIZ
ESW
131
6.
8
38.5
2.1
PNP
Mild Advantage
44
31
5
27
30.0
20.6
2
ST. AND
156
55
39
7.5
6
40.1
28.8
28.2
PNP
Mild Advantage
AER
31
19.9
ST. AND
4.
2
2
Er
AE
163
46
41
9.5
5
48
34
7.9
9.4
17.9
PNP
odible Mild
Advantage