THE FATE OF THREE MARGINAL PNP SEATS
Herbert Gayle, PhD (London), MSc, BA (UWI)
1.
ST. ELIZABETH SOUTH WEST
St. Elizabeth’s South Western constituency has a population of approximately 41,000 according to the
2011 National Census; and of this number 27,712are 18 years and older. This constituency has one of
the highest voter turn-outs in Jamaica – an average of 76% in the last 6 elections. Calculations from the
data suggest that voter turn-out for the upcoming election mightnot exceed 70%. A significantly larger
proportion of respondents (57.3) than the national average of 52.6% expressed that they will vote in the
upcoming election. Additionally, 25.2% expressed some degree of uncertainty about voting for any of
the candidates.
History
From the overall history of St. Elizabeth South-west it can be deduced that the constituency ismarginally
PNP. The seat was created in 1959 and has had 12contested elections, 7 won by the PNP and 5 by the
JLP. The constituency was branded a marginal JLP seat at the beginning with Charles Wright winning the
first 3 elections with slender margins of 6 to 717 votes. In 1972 and 1976 it was won by the PNP’s Mel
Brown (also with slender margins); and was occupied by Derrick Sangster between 1980 and 1989.
Between 1989 and 2002 Donald Buchanan kept the seat PNP with consistent wins of 110 to 1001.
However, when Donald handed the stewardship to Stanley Redwood in 2007, the PNPs were badly
beaten by Christopher Tufton. According to PNP and JLP activists interviewed in January 2016, “Tufton
won because he was able to appeal to Comrades – not because there are more JLPs in this constituency.
He is ambitious, charismatic, intelligent, and behaves like a PNP, pitching projects for everyone, rather
than for a few. This non-partisan attitude got even my sister.” Residents of St. Elizabeth South-west are
“also pre-occupied with being aligned to winners. People got frustrated with the pace at which he was
been promoted among the ranks of the JLP hierarchy; and plus the PNP was going to win in 2011.” In
2011 the PNP cleverly replaced Redwood with the son of the 4 time winner Donald Buchanan; and he
edged Tufton by 13 votes – “riding on the back of his legendary father.”