THREE MARGINAL PNP SEATS

Demographics: PNP Advantage

A transect across the constituency shows that it is made up of PNP communities in the west and east

with JLPs stuck in the middle and on the south coast. Brompton, the most western community, has a

traditional PNP majority. This is followed by Black River, also with a PNP majority. The JLPs become

visible at the beachside village of Parrotee, and this trend continues along the coast to the resort village

of Treasure Beach. Mountainside in the north also has a strong showing of JLPs, and this trend cuts back

south to Barbary Hall, then thins out as one travels east through Watchwell. At Newell the PNPs re-

emerge in large numbers through Pedro Cross and up the hills to Seaview.

Examination of the data in Table 1 and Chart 1 reveals that Donald (Danny) Buchanan “did a job on this

constituency.” Despite the continuous marginal nature, the constituency became PNP – only interrupted

over the past 6 elections by Tufton’s intelligence and charm. When asked to detail the performance of

Donald Buchanan over the 18 years he served the constituency, residents explained that he focused on

the larger areas. These refer to Black River, Brompton and Luana on the western side, and Newell,

Pedro, Flagaman and Seaview in the east. Together these areas account for 63% of the constituency’s

estimated 9,000

order to assess the chances of Floyd Green winning the seat, the

research team cut the sample into meticulous proportions – to the extent that the PNP areas accounted

for 83 of the 131 respondents. This amounts to 63% of the sample to match the demographics perfectly.

Of the 83 respondents interviewed in the communities branded PNP 45 (54%) stated that they will or

might vote for the ruling party; 20 (24%) will or might vote for the JLP; and 18 (22%) will not vote. In

Chart 2 these are in orange numbers. Of the 48 respondents interviewed in JLP communities, 27 (56%)

will or might vote for the JLP; 12 (25%) will or might vote for the PNP; and the remaining 9 (19%) will not

vote in the upcoming election. Three critical observations emerge from the data in Chart 2:

The voting pattern among PNP and JLP branded communities is similar with both having

only a quarter of residents voting for the ‘Other’ party.

The PNP have a clear demographic advantage – given they are situated in larger

communities. As stated above these make up 63% of the constituency.

This means that the JLP cannot win in this constituency unless the PNP communities give

up some of their potential votes. The data collected here do not suggest that the apathy

in the PNP communities is enough to give the JLP a chance. Note that only 22% of the

residents of PNP branded communities have expressed apathy.