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62
41
88
38
76
44
44
58
Personality and
Attitude
Performance/Plans
Mobilization
Impact on Vote
Chart 5: Candidates Compared
Hugh Buchanan Floyd Green
Pre-occupation with Winners
Despite the marginal wins in this constituency the people tend not to “waste votes on losers – we vote
based on tradition and for the winner.” A quick examination of the history will show that, with the
exception of the first election in 1959, South West St. Elizabeth normally votes in the direction of the
party that is expected to form the next government. A 72-year old female resident of Black River
explained: “We vote half with our heart, and half with our brain. You call the heart part tradition; and I
figure you call the brain part being smart. We always ensure that our MP is part of the Government in
power for we need the development down here. It’s simple!”
Table 2 shows that the advantages weigh in favour of Hugh Buchanan. It should not be a surprise that
the raw data in the closing section show that the PNP has a mild advantage in this constituency.
Table 2: Summary of Observations of South West St. Elizabeth
PNP
JLP
History
Advantage in last 6 elections
Won only once in last 6
Demography
PNPs dominate about 63% of H/H
Only 37% of H/H
Traditional Vote
63%
32%
Candidacy
Turns off a few young male voters but loved by
women and mature voters; neglected Parottee
to Treasure Beach tourist strip, but works hard
in community development; has mild positive
vote impact
Warm, but struggles to reach the
poorest; has clear plans, but does
not convince majority; has
average positive vote impact
Party likely to win
Party expected to win
Significant proportion fears he
and party will lose