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Sinking the Eight Ball: How the PNP lost the 2016 General Election
Herbert Gayle, PhD (The UWI)
Despite the efforts of the JLP – which must be commended – the PNP lost the election mainly by
careless acts of their own. These careless acts occurred mainly after the completion of the study on why
Jamaicans vote – January 10, 2016, which was six week before the election. The loss of the election by
the PNP can best be described as ‘Sinking the eight ball in a pool game’. This means that the PNP lost the
election mainly by acts of their own – decisions that allowed the JLP to enjoy a sprint in the last 2 weeks
leading up to the election.
Immediately after the 2016 General Election I set out to find what caused the late swing of votes. I got
my team to assist me in comparing the wins of 2011 and 2016. My research and the polls done showed
the JLP having almost no chance of winning the 2016 election. In fact, I closed my January report by
saying that the PNP would win saving a major social shift. Jamaica had a social shift that many
underestimated; but when combined with other factors, created a fire the PNP could not quell. I
empathize with the pollsters who continued island wide after I exited the field on January 10. I had only
continued to monitor 3 marginal PNP seats – and these continued to look like PNP wins until a few days
before the election. However, these too were swept with the winds of the JLP that blew after the
‘carelessness’ of the PNP.
There are several points that are well supported by the data collected in this post‐election mini research
that show that the PNP sunk the eight ball. These can be grouped into 2 main points.
1.
The comparison of 2011 and 2016 elections show no clear strategy on the part of the JLP to
focus on the marginal seats that they swept. The results of the PNP’s actions and the JLP’s
aggression combined simply caused a wind of change that affected all of Jamaica. The JLP
knew they had to do everything in the last 2 weeks to win and the PNP on the other hand
were simply careless – and some would add overly confident, even arrogant.
In 2011 the JLP was reduced to 21 parliamentary seats across 11 of the country’s 14 parishes. Of these
seats 5 were marginal wins. Nonetheless, between November 15, 2015 and January 10, 2016 we carried
out a study that showed that only 3 of these seats remained problematic for the JLP. These are
highlighted in yellow. The 2 that became safe are in light green (Table 1). In the 2016 General Election
the JLP improved on the margin of win in all of the seats they held – except for those of the targeted
Pernel Charles, and Leslie Campbell (highlighted in light purple). In both of those targeted seats the PNP
failed, and only managed to be ‘nearly men’. On average the JLP improved on the margin of win in the
21 seats by 8.6%.