St Andrew East Rural - JLP candidate entering election with a five-point lead

By: Arthur Hall

If, as is widely expected, Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Andrew Holness retains his seat come Thursday, he could walk into the new Parliament with his wife Juliet at his side.

That's according to the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll conducted on February 20. The poll shows Juliet Holness with a five percentage-point lead over the People's National Party's (PNP) Imani Duncan-Price in East Rural St Andrew.

In a test of the pulse of 480 residents in the constituency, Johnson found that if the election were called now, 40 per cent of the electors would place their 'X' beside Holness, while 35 per cent would vote for Duncan-Price.

However, with 11 per cent of the voters undecided, there is some room for Duncan-Price's ground game on election day to overturn Holness' lead in a constituency which has 36,655 registered voters - including 3,791 added since the 2011 general election which the PNP's Damion Crawford won by 259 votes.

The Johnson poll has a sampling error of plus or minus five per cent.

"East Rural, I think, is still up for grabs," said Johnson, as he argued that the candidate who best gets out her voters on election day will claim the prize.

"And it is easier for the PNP to get out its votes than it is for the JLP, because the PNP's votes are concentrated in areas like Harbour View, while the JLP will have to get its votes from the farming rural communities," added Johnson, even as he accepted that Holness has shown that she has the game to mobilise her supporters.

According to the pollster: "If you look at those who definitely know who they are voting for, there is just a two-point spread - 34 per cent (JLP), 32 per cent (PNP)," said Johnson, as he noted that where Holness holds a clear advantage is in the list of who will probably vote for either party.

But there are several other factors going against Duncan-Price, as 51 per cent of the electors say they do not want the PNP's president, Portia Simpson Miller, to be prime minister (PM) after the election and 44 per cent believe Andrew Holness would do a better job as PM than Simpson Miller (38 per cent).

On the positive side for Duncan-Price, 37 per cent of the electorate said they have a positive opinion of her, while only 27 per cent have a negative opinion.

That is a big step up from Crawford, who received a 46 per cent negative response from the electorate in the Johnson poll.

"By a four-to-three margin, people have an unfavourable opinion of Damion, and, while he didn't poison the water for Imani, he certainly did not freshen the water for the PNP," said Johnson.

And that might be the death knell for the banker-turned-politician, as 48 per cent of the electorate say they have a positive opinion of Holness, an 11 percentage-point advantage on Duncan-Price, and 60 per cent say they have seen the woman they have dubbed 'JAH' in their area in recent days.

Fifty-one per cent of the respondents also say they have seen Duncan-Price in their area in what is the second largest constituency in St Andrew.

For Johnson, the fact that Holness has been so busy in a constituency that spreads from Bull Bay to Mavis Bank was a big surprise.

"She is definitely not behaving like a pampered candidate. She is out there working the ground and not depending on the fact that she is the opposition leader's wife. She could say, 'I'm the leader's wife so I could just sit home and expect people to vote for me,'" said Johnson.

"She is a very bright and hard-working person and I'm surprised that Andrew has kept her in the closet for all these years. He should have had her out front more," added Johnson.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com

 

SEE COMPLETE POLL FINDINGS BELOW:

 

Survey of 480 Residents of St. Andrew East Rural

Conducted February 20, 2016

 

1.       Generally speaking, do you think things in Jamaica are going in the right direction these days or are they going in the wrong direction?            

                                    Right Direction – 27%

                                    Wrong Direction – 53%

                                    Don't Know – 20%

             

  2.      What in your opinion is the most pressing problem the country faces at this time?

                                    Unemployment, jobs – 50%

                                    Crime, violence – 27%

                                    Poor governance – 5%

                                               

3.       Thinking about the area that you live in. . .generally speaking, do you think things are going in the right direction these days in the area you live in, or do you think they’re going in the wrong direction?         

                                  Right Direction – 28%

                                  Wrong Direction – 61%

                                  Don't Know – 9%

 

4.       And what's the most important need in your local area?

                                  Road condition – 43%

                                  Water issues – 39%

                                  Unemployment, jobs – 38%

                                  Street lights – 9%       

 

          Most Important Problems/Greatest Local Needs:

                                  Unemployment, jobs – 67%

                                  Road conditions – 44%

                                  Water issues – 39%

                                  Crime, violence – 28%

                                  Street lights – 10%

                                  Poor governance – 6%

                                  Poverty – 6%                                     

 

 

5.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller?

                                  Favourable – 42%

                                  Unfavourable – 44%

                                  Not Sure – 14%

 

6.       Do you think Portia Simpson-Miller should be selected as Prime Minister when the next national elections are held, or do you think someone else should be elected Prime Minister?

                                  Should Be Selected – 41%

                                  Someone Else – 51%

                                  Don't Know – 8%

                                   

7.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Andrew Holness, the

          leader of the Opposition and leader of the JLP, the Jamaica Labor  Party?

                                  Favourable – 49%

                                  Unfavourable  – 36%

                                  Not Sure – 15%

 

  8.       As things stand now, who do you think would do the best job as Prime Minister. . .Portia Simpson-Miller or Andrew Holness?

                                  Simpson-Miller – 38%

                                  Holness – 44%

                                  Undecided – 18%

 

  9.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about the People's National Party, the PNP?

                                  Favourable – 41%

                                  Unfavourable – 46%

                                  Not Sure – 13%

 

10.       What about the JLP, the Jamaica Labor Party. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about it?

                                  Favourable – 43%

                                  Unfavourable – 43%

                                  Not Sure – 14%

                       

11.       Which of the two parties do you think would do the best job of governing Jamaica at this time. . .the PNP or   the JLP?         

                                 PNP – 40%

                                  JLP – 39%

                                  Undecided – 21%

 

12.       Some people have said that it really doesn't make much difference which party governs Jamaica at this time because neither of them is going to be able to do much about the problems that bother us the most. . .do you strongly agree with this, or do you agree, but not strongly, or do you disagree, or do you strongly disagree?

                                    Strongly Agree – 14%

                                    Agree – 18%

                                    Disagree – 35%

                                    Strongly Disagree – 29%

                                    Don't Know – 4%

 

            Now I'd like to get your opinion about some other persons whose names have been in the news recently. . .      for example:

 

13.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about your Member of Parliament, Damion Crawford?

 

                                    Favourable – 37%

                                    Unfavourable  – 46%

                                    Not Sure – 17%

 

            Damion Crawford is not running for re-election as your Member of Parliament. . .

 

14.       Imani Duncan Pryce is the PNP candidate for Parliament in your area. . .generally speaking do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about her?

                                    Favourable – 37%

                                    Unfavourable  –  27%

                                    Not Sure – 36%

 

15.       By the way. . .have you seen or met Imani Duncan Pryce in your local community over the past month or so?

                                    Yes –  51%

 

16.       What about Juliet Holness, the wife of Andrew Holness, who is the JLP candidate for Parliament in your    area. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about her?

                                    Favourable – 48%

                                    Unfavourable  – 22%

                                    Not Sure – 30%

           

17.       Have you seen or met Juliet Holness in your local community over the past month or so?

                                    Yes – 60%

     

18.       If the election for Parliament was being held today and the PNP candidate was Imani Duncan Pryce and the JLP candidate was Juliet Holness, whom would you most want to win?

                                    Duncan-Price – 37%

                                    Holness – 44%

                                    Undecided – 19%

 

19.       Just a few more questions. . .did you vote in last general elections, which were a little over 4 years ago in December, 2011, or like many people did you not vote for one reason or another?

                                  Yes - Voted – 67%

                                  No - Not Voted – 32%

                                  Don't Remember/Refused – 1%

 

          (IF YES) Whom did you vote for. . .Damion Crawford, the PNP candidate for Parliament or Joan Gordon- , Webley, the JLP candidate for Parliament?

                                  Crawford - PNP – 48%

                                  Gordon-Webley – 47%

                                  Don't Remember/Refused – 5%

                                                                  

          (IF DID NOT VOTE) Are you enumerated to vote, or like many people, are you not enumerated to vote          at this time?

                                  Yes - Enumerated – 24%

                                  No - Not Enumerated – 9%

 

20.       If the general election were being held today do you think you would probably vote for the PNP, or would you definitely vote for the PNP, or would you probably vote for the JLP, or would you definitely vote for the JLP, or would you probably not vote as things stand now?

                                  Probably PNP – 3%

                                  Definitely PNP – 32%

                                  Probably JLP – 6%

                                  Definitely JLP – 34%

                                  Undecided – 11%

                                  Would Not Vote – 13%

 

          What are the main reasons why you feel this way?

 

                        Reasons Why PNP:

                                    PNP supporter – 38%

                                    Doing a good job – 17%

                                    Better than JLP – 14%

                                    Like them, a good party – 8%

                                    Good MP candidate – 7%

 

                        Reasons Why JLP:

                                    Better than PNP – 32%

                                    Need a change            – 18%

                                    JLP supporter – 16%

                                    Deserve a chance – 9%

                                    Good policies/ideas – 8%

                                    Good MP candidate – 5%     

 

21.       Thinking about how you've voted in the last few elections. . .would you say that you always vote for the PNP candidate, or do you usually vote for the PNP candidate, or do you sometimes vote for the PNP candidate and sometimes for the JLP candidate, or do you usually vote for the JLP candidate, or do you always vote for the JLP candidate, or have you not vote for one reason or another?

 

                                   Always PNP – 28%

                                    Usually PNP – 5%

                                    Both – 8%

 

                                    Usually JLP – 8%

                                    Always JLP – 23%

 

                                    Have Not Voted – 24%

                                    Refused – 3%

 

          Speaking of voting. . .

22.       Regardless of whether or not you've voted in the past, I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in the next general election on a scale from zero to 10, with zero meaning there's absolutely no way you will vote in the next general elections, and so on up to 10, which would mean you are absolutely, positively planning to vote, no matter what happens between now and the next general election, or anywhere in-between zero and 10?

 

            Means:             Total - 7.2        PNP - 9.2      JLP - 9.3         Undecided - 5.8         Will Not Vote - .5

 

23.       What's your age?

                                  18  -  24 – 16%           

                                  25  -  34 – 20%

                                  35  -  44 – 21%

                                  45  -  54 ­– 20%

                                  55  -  64 – 13%

                                  65 & Older – 9%

 

24.       Do you have a full-time job, or a part-time job, or are you self-employed, or are you retired, or a student, or a housewife, or are you out of work and looking for a job, or are you out of work and not looking for a job at the present time, or what?

 

                                  Full-time – 28%

                                  Part-time – 6%

                                  Self-employed – 30%

                                  Retired            – 7%

                                  Student – 4% 

                                  Housewife – 1%

                                  Sick, disabled  –  1%

 

                                  Out of Work – Looking – 18%

                                  Out of Work - Not Looking – 4%

 

          (IF FULL-TIME, PART-TIME OR SELF EMPLOYED) What type of work do you do?

 

                      By Observation:

 

                                  Sex:                                                                                                    

                                                          Men – 50%

                                                          Women – 50%