JLP seems set to take St Elizabeth South West

By: Arthur Hall

Former Member of Parliament, the People's National Party's (PNP) Hugh Buchanan, seems set to be sent packing when the votes are counted in St Elizabeth South West come Thursday.

The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has signalled that Buchanan has a mountain to climb if he is to retain the bellwether seat - a constituency that leads to, or indicates, a trend - in the February 25 general election.

The Johnson poll, conducted on February 19 and 20, with 483 respondents and a sampling error of plus or minus five per cent, shows that the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) candidate, Floyd Green, is on target to trounce Buchanan, who won the seat by a mere 12 votes in 2011.

When Johnson asked voters in the constituency how they would vote if the general election were called now, 42 per cent said they would cast their vote for Green, while 34 per cent said Buchanan.

With the independent candidate Mervyn Don Wint not figuring statistically, and only nine per cent of the voters saying they are undecided, Green seems poised to return the seat to the JLP win column.

"Everything is consistent in the constituency. [Andrew] Holness is perceived better than Portia [Simpson Miller], and the JLP is perceived better than the PNP," Johnson told The Gleaner.

He noted that to compound the problems for Buchanan, 51 per cent of the voters in the constituency believe the country is heading in the wrong direction under the PNP administration, 48 per cent have an unfavourable opinion of his party president, Portia Simpson Miller, and 49 per cent want to see her replaced as prime minister after the next election.

All other numbers point in Green's favour, with more electors seeing the JLP in a favourable light than unfavourable, and 44 per cent seeing JLP Leader Holness as the person who would do a better job as prime minister than Simpson Miller, who polled 38 per cent.

On the ground, the story is no better for Buchanan, with only 39 per cent of the electors saying they have seen him in the constituency over the past month or so, with 59 per cent saying they have seen Green during that period.

"That's just the same thing we saw in St Mary Western where the incumbent is just being lazy," added Johnson.

This translates into 60 per cent of the electors having an unfavourable opinion of Buchanan, with only 24 per cent seeing him in a favourable light.

Newcomer Green, who has a 45 per cent favourability rating compared to 25 per cent unfavourability, has efffectively flipped the script.

With 48 hours to go before the votes are cast, 44 per cent of the almost 30,200 voters on the list say they want to see a Green victory, with only 33 per cent wanting to see the return of Buchanan.

But for Johnson, despite this being a bellwether seat, he does not believe a defeat for Buchanan will translate into an overall victory for the JLP.

"I have never gone along with that stuff that this constituency or this electoral district is going to indicate how the election will go. It is just a chance that this stuff happens, and if you look at what happened last time, the PNP won 42 seats and it won this constituency by 12 votes. This certainly was not representative of the country," said Johnson.

"This is one of the seats that I had as leaning JLP, and I also had St Mary West leaning JLP, so I wouldn't read anything into this. What I would read into this is that it doesn't look like the PNP is going to get 40 seats. If you take St Mary West and this, it is hard to see how the PNP is going to win 40 seats," added Johnson.

On election day 2011, it was not until the last vote was counted that St Elizabeth South West was declared for Buchanan and the PNP.

But even then it was not until the official count was completed that it was clear that the Jamaica Labour Party's Dr Christopher Tufton had been defeated by 13 votes in a seat that has gone to the winning party in all but one general election.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com

 

SEE COMPLETE POLL FINDINGS BELOW:

 

Survey of 483 Residents of St. Elizabeth South West Conducted February 19 & 20, 2016

 

1.       Generally speaking, do you think things in Jamaica are going in the right direction these days or are they going in the wrong direction?            

 

                                    Right Direction – 30%

                                    Wrong Direction – 51%

                                    Don't Know – 19%  

             

  2.      What in your opinion is the most pressing problem the country faces at this time?

 

                                    Jobs – 49%

                                    Crime – 26%

                                    Road conditions – 6%

                                    Poverty – 5%

                                    Cost of living – 5%

 

3.       Thinking about the area that you live in. . .generally speaking, do you think things are going in the right direction these days in the area you live in, or do you think they’re going in the wrong direction?             

 

                                  Right Direction – 54 %

                                  Wrong Direction – 33%

                                  Don't Know – 13%

 

4.       And what's the most important need in your local area?

 

                                         Jobs – 41%

                                  Water issues – 34%

                                  Road conditions – 32%         

 

            Most Pressing Problems/Greatest Local Needs:

 

                                    Unemployment, jobs – 64%   

                                    Water issues – 34%

                                    Road conditions – 32%

                                    Crime, violence – 26%

                                    Poverty – 6%

 

 

5.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller?

 

                                  Favourable – 40%

                                  Unfavourable – 48%

                                  Not Sure – 12%

 

  6.       Do you think Portia Simpson-Miller should be selected as Prime Minister when the next national elections are held, or do you think someone else should be elected Prime Minister?

 

                                  Should Be Selected – 40%

                                  Someone Else – 49%

                                  Don't Know – 11%

 

7.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Andrew Holness, the leader  of the Opposition and leader of the JLP, the Jamaica Labor  Party?

 

                                  Favourable – 46%                  

                                  Unfavourable – 37%

                                  Not Sure – 17 %

 

  8.       As things stand now, who do you think would do the best job as Prime Minister. . .Portia Simpson-Miller or Andrew Holness?

 

                                  Simpson-Miller – 38%

                                  Holness – 44%

                                  Undecided – 18%

 

  9.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about the People's National Party, the PNP?

                                  Favourable – 41%

                                  Unfavourable – 47%

                                  Not Sure – 12%

 

10.       What about the JLP, the Jamaica Labor Party. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about it?

 

                                  Favourable – 45%

                                  Unfavourable – 41%  

                                  Not Sure – 14%

 

 

11.       Which of the two parties do you think would do the best job of governing Jamaica at this time. . .the PNP or  the JLP?         

                                  PNP – 40%    

                                  JLP – 43%

                                  Undecided – 17%      

 

12.       Some people have said that it really doesn't make much difference which party governs Jamaica at this time because neither of them is going to be able to do much about the problems that bother us the most. . .do you strongly agree with this, or do you agree, but not strongly, or do you disagree, or do you strongly disagree?

 

                                    Strongly Agree – 12%

                                    Agree – 18%

                                    Disagree – 45%

                                    Strongly Agree – 22%

                                    Don't Know – 3%

 

            Now I'd like to get your opinion about some other persons whose names have been in the news recently. . .      for example:

 

14.       Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about your Member of Parliament, Hugh Buchanan?

 

                                    Favourable – 24%

                                    Unfavourable – 60%

                                    Not Sure – 16%

 

15.       Speaking of your Member of Parliament, Hugh Buchanan. . .have you seen or met him in your local community over the past month or so?

 

                                    Yes – 39%

 

16.       What about Floyd Green, who is the JLP candidate for Parliament in your area. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about him?

 

                                    Favourable – 45%

                                    Unfavourable – 25%

                                    Not Sure – 30%

 

17.       Have you seen or met Floyd Green in your local community over the past month or so?

 

                                    Yes - 59%

                                   

18.       If the election for Parliament was being held today and the PNP candidate was Hugh Buchanan and the JLP candidate was Floyd Green, whom would you most want to win?

 

                                    Buchanan – 33%

                                    Green – 44%

                                    Undecided – 23%

 

19.       Just a few more questions. . .did you vote in last general elections, which were held a little over 4 years ago in December, 2011, or like many people did you not vote for one reason or another?

 

                                  Voted  - 68%

                                  Did Not Vote – 30%

                                  Don't Remember/Refused – 2%                                

           

          (IF YES) Whom did you vote for. . .Hugh Buchanan, the PNP candidate for Parliament or Christopher Tufton, the JLP candidate for Parliament?

 

                                  Buchanan – PNP - 48%

                                  Tufton – JLP – 47%

                                  Don’t Remember/Refused – 5%

                                            

          (IF DID NOT VOTE) Are you enumerated to vote, or like many people, are you not enumerated to vote          at this time?

                                  Yes – Enumerated – 23%

                                  No - Not Enumerated – 8%

         

20.       If  the general election were being held today do you think you would probably vote for the PNP, or would you definitely vote for the PNP, or would you probably vote for the JLP, or would you definitely vote for the JLP, or would you probably vote for an independent candidate, or will you probably not vote as things stand now?

                                    Probably PNP – 4%

                                    Definitely PNP – 30%

                                    Probably JLP – 3%

                                    Definitely JLP – 39%

                                    Independent – 0%     

                                    Undecided – 9            %        

                                    Would Not Vote – 14%

                                    Refused – 1%

 

 

          What are the main reasons why you feel this way?

                      Reasons Why PNP:

                                  PNP supporter – 18%

                                  Like them. a good party – 18%

                                  Better than JLP – 14%

                                  Doing a good job – 12%

                     

                      Reasons Why JLP:

                                  Better than PNP – 28%

                                  Need a change – 13%

                                  Good MP candidate – 13%

                                  JLP supporter – 12%

                                  Deserve a chance – 9%

                                  Poor PNP MP – 9%               

 

21.       Thinking about how you've voted in the last few elections. . .would you say that you always vote for the PNP candidate, or do you usually vote for the PNP candidate, or do you sometimes vote for the PNP candidate and sometimes for the JLP candidate, or do you usually vote for the JLP candidate, or do you always vote for the JLP candidate, or have you not vote for one reason or another?

 

                                    Always PNP – 27%

Usually PNP – 7%

                                    Both – 6%

                                    Usually JLP – 10%

                                    Always JLP – 24%

                                    Have Not Voted – 22%

                                    Refused – 4%

 

          Speaking of voting. . .

 

22.       Regardless of whether or not you've voted in the past, I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in the next general election on a scale from zero to 10, with zero meaning there's absolutely no way you will vote in the next general elections, and so on up to 10, which would mean you are absolutely, positively planning to vote, no matter what happens between now and the next general election, or anywhere in-between zero and 10?

 

          Means              Total - 7.2      PNP - 8.8      JLP - 9.3      Undecided  - 4.7      Will Not Vote - .4 

                     

 

23.       What's your age?

 

                                  18  -  24 – 18%

                                  25  -  34 – 21%

                                  35  -  44 – 23%           

                                  45  -  54 – 16%

                                  55  -  64 – 12%

                                  65 & Older – 9%

         

24.       Do you have a full-time job, or a part-time job, or are you self-employed, or are you retired, or a student, or a housewife, or are you out of work and looking for a job, or are you out of work and not looking for a job at the present time, or what?

 

                                  Full-time – 21%

                                  Part-time – 7%

                                  Self-employed – 41%

                                  Retired            – 8%

                                  Student – 1%

                                  Housewife – 3%        

                                  Sick, disabled  – 1%

 

                                  Out of Work – Looking – 15%

                                  Out of Work - Not Looking – 2%

 

          (IF FULL-TIME, PART-TIME OR SELF EMPLOYED) What type of work do you do?

 

 

 

                      By Observation:

 

                                  Sex:    

                                              Men -   50%

                                              Women - 50%