BET ON BOBBY! - JLP strongman poised to retake St Mary Western

By: Arthur Hall

After a surprise 227-vote defeat in St Mary Western in 2011, the Jamaica Labour Party's Robert 'Bobby', Montague seems set to return to the House of Representatives after the votes are counted on February 25.

Montague, a then minister in the Andrew Holness administration, had gone into the 2011 general election defending a healthy 776 votes winning margin from 2007 and was the odds-on favourite to beat the political newcomer, the People's National Party's Joylan Silvera.

But Silvera destroyed the form book as he secured 1,438 more votes than Delano Franklyn did in the constituency for the PNP in 2007, while Montague increased his numbers by only 444 votes.

This time around, Montague, the current JLP chairman, is gunning for revenge, and a just-concluded Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that Silvera could be in for a political spanking in a seat the JLP must win if it is to form the next Government.

Johnson found that if an election was called now, 46 per cent of the voters would line up behind Montague, while 28 per cent say they would vote for Silvera.

Paul Ward of the Marcus Garvey People's Progressive Party, who is also contesting the seat, does not figure statistically, while 26 per cent of the electors would not cast a vote.

"Bobby seems to be doing everything right," Johnson told The Sunday Gleaner.

"The amazing thing is that seven out of every 10 persons have seen him in their community in the past 30 days, and that compares to the incumbent member of parliament (Silvera), who one in four persons have seen.

"So, certainly, in the past 30 days, Montague has outworked his opponent significantly," added Johnson.

 

Unfavourable opinion

To compound the problem facing Silvera, 69 per cent of the electors in the constituency have an unfavourable opinion of him, with fewer than 20 per cent satisfied with his work over the past four years.

The numbers are reversed for Montague, with 67 per cent of the people having a favourable opinion of him, while only 23 per cent, which is even slightly lower than the hard-core PNP base in the constituency, say that they have an unfavourable opinion of him.

"Interestingly it is correct that some PNP supporters are not endorsing Silvera. You can see 33 per cent of the electors say they usually vote for the PNP while 30 per cent say they usually vote for the JLP and at this point the JLP vote is considerably larger than the 33 per cent," noted Johnson.

"There is an antipathy towards Silvera. We asked people why you are voting the way you are voting and throughout the country the usual answers are 'I'm a supporter of the party' or 'they are better than the other party' ...

"But here almost 42 per cent who say they are voting for the JLP say they are voting because of Montague while four per cent are voting Labour because they don't like "Silvera and those numbers are so totally different than the rest of the country," noted Johnson.

The pollster further noted that none of the persons in St Mary Western who say they plan to vote for the PNP listed the candidate as the reason why they are voting this way.

Of the 16 contested elections in West St Mary, the JLP has won six and the PNP has won 10. There are 35,475 persons registered to vote in the constituency.

The Johnson poll was conducted in the constituency on February 13 and 14 with 480 respondents and a sampling error of plus or minus five per cent.

arthur.hall@gleanerjm.com

SEEE COMPLETE POLL FINDINGS BELOW:

Report of a Survey of 480 Residents of St Mary Western
Conducted February 13 & 14, 2016

1. Generally speaking, do you think things in Jamaica are going in the right direction these days or are they going in the wrong direction? 

Right Direction – 30%
Wrong Direction – 49%
Don't Know – 21%

  2.      What in your opinion is the most pressing problem the country faces at this time?

Unemployment, jobs – 38%
   Crime, violence – 19%
   Poverty – 5%

3. Thinking about the area that you live in. . .generally speaking, do you think things are going in the right direction these days in the area you live in, or do you think they’re going in the wrong direction?  

   Right Direction – 32%
   Wrong Direction – 56%  
   Don't Know – 12%

4. And what's the most important need in your local area?

   Unemployment – 40%
   Road conditions – 21%
   Water issues – 19%
   Community center  – 5%   

Most Important Problems/Greatest Local Needs:

   Unemployment, jobs – 51%
   Road conditions – 22%
   Crime, violence – 20%
   Water issues – 19%
   Poverty – 5%
   Community center – 5%  

5. Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Prime Minister PortiaSimpson-Miller?

   Favourable – 44%
   Unfavourable – 44%
   Not Sure – 12%

  6. Do you think Portia Simpson-Miller should be selected as Prime Minister when the next national elections are held, or do you think someone else should be elected Prime Minister?

   Should Be Selected – 41%
   Someone Else – 50%
   Don't Know – 9%

  7. Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about Andrew Holness, the Leader of the Opposition and leader of the JLP, the Jamaica Labour Party?

   Favourable – 48%
   Unfavourable – 35%
   Not Sure – 17%

  8. As things stand now, who do you think would do the best job as Prime Minister. . .Portia Simpson-Miller or Andrew Holness?

   Simpson-Miller – 36%
   Holness – 43%
   Undecided – 21%

  9. Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about the People's National Party, the PNP?
   Favourable – 39%
   Unfavourable – 51%
   Not Sure – 10%

10. What about the JLP, the Jamaica Labour Party. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about it?

   Favourable – 48%
   Unfavourable – 41%
   Not Sure – 11%
  
11. Which of the two parties do you think would do the best job of governing Jamaica at this time. . .the PNP or
the JLP?
   PNP – 37%
   JLP – 46%
   Undecided – 17%
  
12. Some people have said that it really doesn't make much difference which party governs Jamaica at this time because neither of them is going to be able to do much about the problems that bother us the most. . .do you strongly agree with this, or do you agree, but not strongly, or do you disagree, or do you strongly disagree?

   Strongly Agree - 16%
   Agree – 16%

   Disagree – 41%
   Strongly Disagree – 25%

   Don't Know – 2%

Now I'd like to get your opinion about some other persons whose names have been in the news recently. . .      for example:

14. Generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about your Member of Parliament, JolyanSilvera?

   Favourable – 18%
   Unfavourable – 69%
   Not Sure – 13%

15. Speaking of your Member of Parliament, Jolyan Silvera. . .have you seen or met him in your local community over the past month or so?

   Yes – 24%

16. What about Robert Montague, who is the JLP candidate for Parliament in your area. . .generally speaking, do you have a favourable or an unfavourable opinion about him?

   Favourable –  67%
   Unfavourable – 23%
   Not Sure – 10%

17. Have you seen or met Robert Montague in your local community over the past month or so?

   Yes – 69%
  
18. If the election for Parliament was being held today and the PNP candidate was Jolyan Silvera and the JLP candidate was Robert Montague, whom would you most want to win?

   Silvera - PNP  25%
   Montague - JLP 62 % 
   Undecided  - 13%

19. Just a few more questions. . .did you vote in last general elections, which were held a little over 4yearsago in December, 2011, or like many people did you not vote for one reason or another?

   Yes - Voted 61%
   No - Did Not Vote  38%
   Don't Remember/Refused        1

(IF YES) Whom did you vote for. . .Jolyan Silvera, the PNP candidate for Parliament or Robert Montague, the JLP candidate for Parliament?

   Silvera - PNP 48%
   Montague - JLP 47%
   Don't Remember/Refused 5
              
(IF DID NOT VOTE) Are you enumerated to vote, or like many people, are you not enumerated to vote at this time?
   Yes - Enumerated  29%
   No - Not Enumerated  10%

20. If  the general election were being held today do you think you would probably vote for the PNP, or would you definitely vote for the PNP, or would you probably vote for the JLP, or would you definitely vote for the JLP, or would you probably vote for an independent candidate, or would you probably not vote as things stand now?
   Probably PNP - 1%
   Definitely PNP  - 27%
       
   Probably JLP - 4%
   Definitely JLP  - 42%

   Independent          *
   Undecided  - 10%
   Would Not Vote -14%
   Refused - 2%

What are the main reasons why you feel this way?

  Reasons Why PNP:
   PNP supporter - 40%
   Doing a good job - 20%
   Like them, a good party - 15%

  Reasons Why JLP:
   Good MP candidate - 42%
   Better than PNP - 19%
   JLP supporter - 12%
   Need a change - 5%
   Bad PNP MP - 4%

21. Thinking about how you've voted in the last few elections. . .would you say that you always vote for the PNP candidate, or do you usually vote for the PNP candidate, or do you sometimes vote for the PNP candidate and sometimes for the JLP candidate, or do you usually vote for the JLP candidate, or do you always vote for the JLP candidate, or have you not vote for one reason or another?

   Always PNP - 25%
   Usually PNP - 8%

   Both - 11%

   Usually JLP - 9%
   Always JLP - 21% 

   Refused - 3%

   Have Not Voted - 21%

Speaking of voting. . .

22. Regardless of whether or not you've voted in the past, I'd like you to rate your chances of voting in the next general election on a scale from zero to 10, with zero meaning there's absolutely no way you will vote in the next general elections, and so on up to 10, which would mean you are absolutely, positively planning to vote, no matter what happens between now and the next general election, or anywhere in-between zero and 10?

Total (Means) 7.9 

PNP - 9.5 

JLP - 9.2 

Undecided - 5.3 

Would not vote - 1.0 
 
23. What's your age?

   18  -  24        25%
   25  -  34        17%
   35  -  44        19%
   45  -  54        20%
   55  -  64        13%
   65 & Older    6%
     Median   39.3

24. Do you have a full-time job, or a part-time job, or are you self-employed, or are you retired, or a student, or a housewife, or are you out of work and looking for a job, or are you out of work and not looking for a job at the present time, or what?

   Full-time – 23 %
   Part-time – 5%
   Self-Employed – 39%

   Retired – 5%
   Student – 5%
   Housewife – 2%

   Out of work – Looking - 18%
   Out of work – Not Looking - 3%
  
(IF FULL-TIME, PART-TIME OR SELF EMPLOYED) What type of work do you do?

   Labourer – 15%
   Tradesman – 11%
   Farmer – 11%
   Business person – 7%
   Shopkeeper – 4%
   Vendor – 3%
   Taxi operator – 3%
   Personal services – 2%
   Teacher, nurse – 2%

 

By Observation:

    Sex:        
    Male        50%
    Female    50%