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No clear choices - Party candidates in dead heat, electors look to leaders
Published in the Jamaica Gleaner: Sunday | August 19, 2007
Byron Buckley, Associate Editor
While party leaders, Portia Simpson Miller and Bruce Golding, continue to show marked differences in personal standings, electors at the constituency level are hard-pressed to identify which candidates of the People's National Party or the Jamaica Labour Party would perform better as Members of Parliament (MP).
The latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, conducted a week ago, found that, at the constituency level, electors were unable to make a clear choice of which party's candidates would perform better as MP following the August 27 general election.
Of the 1,008 persons interviewed in 84 communities islandwide, 40 per cent believed the PNP candidate - as opposed to 38 per cent for the JLP candidate - would better represent their interests. Furthermore, 41 per cent of respondents held a favour-able view of PNP candidates, while 40 per cent felt the same way about JLP candidates. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents viewed JLP candidates in an unfavourable light, while 35 per cent held unfavourable views about PNP representatives.
Public perception of JLP candidates as suitable to be MPs moved by eight percentage points since June, and six points for the PNP during the same period. With the electoral contest in constituencies shaping up to be close, the attractiveness of party leaders, as well as the image of parties, assumed greater significance.
PNP continues to shine
According to Johnson's latest poll, which has an error margin of plus or minus three per cent, Prime Minister Simpson Miller continues to outshine Oppo-sition Leader Golding in personal ratings. The poll results show the PM with 51 per cent job approval rating, and52 per cent favourability rating, compared to Golding's 41 per cent. In addition, 46 per cent of respondents said Simpson Miller would do a better job as Prime Minister, compared to Golding with 39 per cent support.
However, while Simpson Miller continues to ride a wave of popularity, her favourability rating dropped by four points since mid-July with a concomitant rise of five points in her unfavourability figures. Contrastingly, Golding has been improving his personal numbers - three-point increase in favourability rating, and five-point increase in the number of persons who said he would do a better job, than Simpson Miller, as Prime Minister.
In fact, only seven percentage points now separate the views about which of the two political leaders would perform better as head of government. The difference was 14 points in June and 13 points in July!
'Strong, insightful Bruce'
Commenting on the relative standings of both party leaders, political analyst, Charlene Sharpe-Pryce, says: "The strong, impressive showing of the Jamaica Labour Party projects Bruce Golding as a strong, insightful and tactical leader who has managed to transform and hold together a viabl to the People's National Party.
"Regardless of which side of the political divide one stands, and regardless of whether or not one likes the man," argues Sharpe-Pryce, "one must lift one's hat to Golding, agreeing that the mammoth and difficult task of overhauling and redefining the JLP - election or no election - is nothing short of incredible leadership 'accessorised' by inspiration, trust and dedication.
The Northern Caribbean University lecturer sees the PNP at a crossroads that needs to be manoeuvred adroitly as they seek a fifth term.
"Critical to the success of any entity is its leadership, and it seems to me that the PNP is experiencing a class crisis in leadership that is threatening its foundational underpinnings," reasons Sharpe-Pryce.
"Mrs. Simpson Miller may not be the eloquent strategist, but she is a strong, visionarywoman, not lacking in intellect, but a victim of gender-class relations within her own party."
States Sharpe-Pryce: "Until the party deals squarely with this issue and stop forcing Mrs. Simpson Miller into a mould that is alien to her socialisation, the fifth term might just elude the party."
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